發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-09 06:05

  本文選題：固體排放　切入點(diǎn)：公共健康　出處：《林業(yè)科學(xué)》2017年08期

【摘要】：【目的】以森林吸收煙粉塵為例,實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)煙粉塵對(duì)居民呼吸系統(tǒng)相關(guān)疾病的影響,定量分析空氣污染與公共健康的關(guān)系。【方法】首先,沿用文獻(xiàn)回顧闡述大氣污染引發(fā)呼吸系統(tǒng)相關(guān)疾病,森林可以通過(guò)減少空氣污染物來(lái)影響人體健康的相關(guān)研究;其次,基于我國(guó)30個(gè)省(市、區(qū))7年的面板數(shù)據(jù),分別通過(guò)最小二乘法(OLS)、面板模型、3SLS估計(jì)煙粉塵對(duì)公共健康的影響;第三,著重采用3SLS方法克服顆粒物排放的內(nèi)生性問(wèn)題,從而更加準(zhǔn)確地評(píng)價(jià)環(huán)境污染對(duì)公共健康的負(fù)面影響,有效解釋地區(qū)間健康水平異質(zhì)性;第四,采用不同排放物作為工具變量對(duì)估計(jì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn),以保證結(jié)論的可信度�！窘Y(jié)果】1)OLS估計(jì)顯示,煙粉塵對(duì)公共健康的影響非常顯著,煙粉塵排放量每增加1%,萬(wàn)人中死于肺癌和呼吸性疾病的人數(shù)相應(yīng)增加0.568%和0.488%。2)隨機(jī)效應(yīng)模型(RE)估計(jì)顯示,煙粉塵對(duì)肺癌死亡人數(shù)的顯著性水平有所降低,在10%水平下顯著為正,對(duì)呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病的死亡人數(shù)影響非常顯著,煙粉塵排放量每增加1%,二者死亡人數(shù)分別增加0.207%和0.467%。3)采用外生的病蟲(chóng)害發(fā)生面積作為森林面積的工具變量來(lái)解決煙粉塵排放的內(nèi)生性問(wèn)題�；�于工具變量的三階段最小二乘估計(jì)(3SLS)顯示,森林面積顯著影響煙粉塵排放水平,森林面積每增加1%,煙粉塵排放量大約降低0.884%;煙粉塵排放量每增加1%,萬(wàn)人中死于肺癌人數(shù)將增加0.777%,死于呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病的人數(shù)將增加0.704%,并且均高于用OLS、隨機(jī)效應(yīng)模型估計(jì)出的值,說(shuō)明后2種方法會(huì)低估空氣污染對(duì)公共健康的影響。4)人均GDP和人口密度正向作用于居民公共健康水平,人均醫(yī)療支出對(duì)居民公共健康水平在1%水平下顯著為負(fù),即人均醫(yī)療支出每增加1%,萬(wàn)人中肺癌及呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡人數(shù)將分別降低0.362%和0.543%�！窘Y(jié)論】鑒于森林通過(guò)吸收煙粉塵可提高公共健康水平,為了進(jìn)一步提高公共健康水平,除了通過(guò)法律和強(qiáng)制措施從源頭治理污染外,還需要大力提倡植樹(shù)造林、提高森林覆蓋率、擴(kuò)大煙粉塵吸收能力強(qiáng)的樹(shù)種面積、有效提高病蟲(chóng)害防治水平等。
[Abstract]:[objective] to study the effect of smoke dust on respiratory diseases and analyze the relationship between air pollution and public health.Following the review of the literature on respiratory system related diseases caused by air pollution, forest can affect human health by reducing air pollutants. Secondly, based on panel data from 30 provinces (municipalities and districts) in China for 7 years,The least square method and panel model are used to estimate the impact of smoke dust on public health. Thirdly, the 3SLS method is used to overcome the endogenetic problem of particulate matter emissions, so as to evaluate the negative effects of environmental pollution on public health more accurately.It can effectively explain the heterogeneity of health level among different regions. Fourthly, we use different emissions as tool variables to test the robustness of the estimated results to ensure the reliability of the conclusions. [results] 1)OLS estimates show that,The impact of smoke dust on public health is very significant. For every 1 percent increase in smoke dust emissions, the number of deaths from lung cancer and respiratory diseases in thousands of people increases correspondingly by 0.568% and 0.4880.2.) Stochastic effect model REE estimates show that,Smoke dust had a significant effect on the death toll of lung cancer, which was significantly positive at 10% level, and had a significant effect on the death toll of respiratory diseases.For each increase of smoke dust emissions, the number of deaths increased by 0.207% and 0.467.3 respectively) the exogenous pest and disease occurrence area was used as the tool variable of forest area to solve the endogenous problem of smoke dust emission.The three-stage least squares estimation based on tool variables showed that forest area significantly affected the emission level of smoke dust.For every increase in forest area, the emission of smoke dust will be reduced by approximately 0.8844.When the discharge of smoke dust increases by 1 percent, the number of deaths from lung cancer among 10,000 people will increase by 0.77777, and the number of deaths from respiratory diseases will increase by 0.7044.It will be higher than the values estimated by the OLS- random effect model.The latter two methods can underestimate the impact of air pollution on public health. 4) the per capita GDP and population density positively affect the public health level of residents, and the per capita medical expenditure is significantly negative at the level of 1% of the residents' public health.That is, for every increase in per capita medical expenditure, the number of deaths from lung cancer and respiratory diseases will be reduced by 0.362% and 0.543% respectively among the ten thousand people. [conclusion] in view of the fact that forests can raise the level of public health by absorbing smoke and dust, in order to further improve the level of public health,In addition to controlling pollution from the source through laws and compulsory measures, it is necessary to promote afforestation, increase forest coverage, expand the area of tree species with strong dust absorption capacity, and effectively improve the level of pest and disease control.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)林業(yè)科學(xué)研究院林業(yè)科技信息研究所;
【基金】：浙江省省院合作林業(yè)科技項(xiàng)目“森林療養(yǎng)基地認(rèn)證標(biāo)準(zhǔn)與指標(biāo)體系研究”(2016SY17) 中央級(jí)公益性科研院所基本科研業(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專項(xiàng)資金資助項(xiàng)目(CAFYBB2017QA020)
【分類號(hào)】：R122

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本文編號(hào)：1725163