發(fā)布時間：2018-05-21 06:21

  本文選題：沿海城市 + 上海　； 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：在全球氣候變暖與海平面上升的背景下,隨著城市化水平的不斷提高,城市人口與財富不斷積聚,各種建筑設(shè)施更加密集,城市系統(tǒng)自然災(zāi)害暴露性與脆弱性程度加大,其面臨的自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險形勢更加嚴(yán)峻。地處長江河口三角洲的上海市在我國社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展建設(shè)中起著引領(lǐng)與示范作用,同時也與我國其他沿海城市一樣近年來飽受暴雨內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害困擾。本論文在國家自然科學(xué)基金重點項目“沿海城市自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險應(yīng)急預(yù)案情景分析”(編號：40730526)和華東師范大學(xué)博士研究生學(xué)術(shù)新人獎項目(編號:XRZZ2010024)的資助下,綜合考慮城市系統(tǒng)不同類型承災(zāi)體特征,構(gòu)建城市暴雨內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估的理論方法與流程范式,并以上海市為例開展實證研究。主要取得了以下研究成果： (1)在系統(tǒng)分析城市系統(tǒng)構(gòu)成的基礎(chǔ)上,對城市洪澇災(zāi)害類型、系統(tǒng)構(gòu)成與特征進行了深入分析；基于對城市洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險概念的理解,系統(tǒng)梳理了城市洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險系統(tǒng)構(gòu)成與特征,并針對城市具有不同特征的承災(zāi)體類型,分別提出了基于情景模擬分析的地上建筑暴雨內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估方法與流程以及基于情景模擬分析的地下空間暴雨內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估方法與流程。 (2)宏觀上,上海市洪災(zāi)發(fā)生率較高,發(fā)生不均勻,洪災(zāi)次數(shù)隨時間推移呈不斷增加趨勢。上海市洪災(zāi)類型以內(nèi)澇型為主,并且在新中國成立后表現(xiàn)更為突出；上海市內(nèi)澇型洪災(zāi)和風(fēng)暴潮型洪災(zāi)次數(shù)均隨著時間變化呈較明顯的上升趨勢,并且內(nèi)澇型洪災(zāi)次數(shù)曲線與洪災(zāi)總次數(shù)曲線走勢最接近。 (3)微觀上,251-2000年間,除崇明縣外,上海市其余各區(qū)洪災(zāi)類型均以內(nèi)澇型為主；1949-2000年間上海市各區(qū)縣洪災(zāi)類型均以內(nèi)澇型為主。雖然各區(qū)縣在不同時段表現(xiàn)的特征有所差異,但總體上均表現(xiàn)出洪災(zāi)發(fā)生不均勻的特征。此外,除閔行區(qū)洪災(zāi)次數(shù)曲線呈倒“U”型分布外,其余各區(qū)縣洪災(zāi)次數(shù)均隨時間的不斷推移呈逐漸上升趨勢。 (4)從長時間尺度(251-2000年)上看,青浦區(qū)、浦東新區(qū)、閔行區(qū)、嘉定區(qū)、寶山區(qū)、松江區(qū)和奉賢區(qū)應(yīng)該特別注意漫溢型洪災(zāi)的防治工作,金山區(qū)漫溢型洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險處于中等水平,市區(qū)和崇明縣漫溢型洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險相對較小；浦東新區(qū)內(nèi)澇型洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險較高,閔行區(qū)、寶山區(qū)和青浦區(qū)內(nèi)澇型洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險處于中等水平,內(nèi)澇型洪災(zāi)對嘉定區(qū)、市區(qū)、松江區(qū)、奉賢區(qū)、金山區(qū)和崇明縣的影響相對較小；浦東新區(qū)風(fēng)暴潮型洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險最高,寶山區(qū)、閔行區(qū)和崇明縣風(fēng)暴潮型洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險處于中等水平,風(fēng)暴潮型洪災(zāi)對嘉定區(qū)、青浦區(qū)、松江區(qū)、市區(qū)、奉賢區(qū)和金山區(qū)影響較��；整體上,浦東新區(qū)和閔行區(qū)洪災(zāi)綜合風(fēng)險較高,寶山區(qū)、青浦區(qū)、嘉定區(qū)和松江區(qū)洪災(zāi)綜合風(fēng)險處于中等水平,奉賢區(qū)、金山區(qū)、市區(qū)和崇明縣洪災(zāi)綜合風(fēng)險相對較小。 (5)從短時間尺度(1949-2000年)上看,青浦區(qū)漫溢型洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險最大,松江區(qū)、金山區(qū)、嘉定區(qū)、寶山區(qū)和崇明縣漫溢型洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險處于中等水平,奉賢區(qū)、浦東新區(qū)、閔行區(qū)和市區(qū)漫溢型洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險最小；市區(qū)內(nèi)澇型洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險最大,其余各區(qū)縣內(nèi)澇型洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險均較小；市區(qū)、浦東新區(qū)、寶山區(qū)風(fēng)暴潮型洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險處于相對較高的水平,松江區(qū)、金山區(qū)、奉賢區(qū)、閔行區(qū)和崇明縣處于中等水平,風(fēng)暴潮型洪災(zāi)對青浦區(qū)和嘉定區(qū)影響最小；整體上,市區(qū)、青浦區(qū)和寶山區(qū)洪災(zāi)綜合風(fēng)險相對較高,浦東新區(qū)、松江區(qū)、金山區(qū)處于中等水平,崇明縣、嘉定區(qū)、奉賢區(qū)和閔行區(qū)則相對較小。市區(qū)應(yīng)作為上海洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險管理優(yōu)先處置的對象。 (6)以上海浦東新區(qū)為例對典型孕災(zāi)環(huán)境變化過程——土地利用/覆被變化對城市內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害的影響進行實證研究發(fā)現(xiàn),城市土地利用/覆被變化導(dǎo)致徑流深度趨于增大,但在城市化不同時期土地利用/覆被變化對地表徑流的影響呈現(xiàn)不同的特征。1994-2000年,地表徑流深度大幅度增加；2000-2003年,地表徑流深度雖然仍繼續(xù)增加,但增幅很小；2003-2006年,地表徑流深度繼續(xù)保持增加的趨勢,并且增幅比2000-2003年有所回升。隨著城市化水平的不斷提高,土地利用類型與結(jié)構(gòu)的巨大變化不僅對城市暴雨內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害的孕災(zāi)環(huán)境產(chǎn)生較大影響,還對致災(zāi)因子發(fā)生概率與強度以及承災(zāi)體的類型與結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生一定影響。土地利用覆被變化帶來的上述影響將導(dǎo)致城市暴雨內(nèi)澇成災(zāi)的可能性大大增加。 (7)根據(jù)城市系統(tǒng)獨特的下墊面特征,充分考慮地表建筑對降雨徑流的影響以及泵站排水為城市唯一的排水途徑等特殊情況,構(gòu)建了集城市地形模型、城市降雨徑流模型、地形影響修正模型和GIS空間分析模塊為一體的高精度綜合模型——簡化城市暴雨內(nèi)澇模型,該模型具有計算簡單、模擬耗時短的特點。 (8)對中心城區(qū)地鐵系統(tǒng)暴雨內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險情景分析結(jié)果顯示,上海市中心城區(qū)地鐵暴雨內(nèi)澇風(fēng)險整體水平不高。存在潛在風(fēng)險的地鐵出口數(shù)為40個,僅占總數(shù)的11.6%。上海西站1號口和婁山關(guān)路3號口內(nèi)澇風(fēng)險水平較高,處于中等風(fēng)險水平的地鐵出口有18個,有20個地鐵出口屬于低風(fēng)險出口。整體上,2號線和11號線內(nèi)澇風(fēng)險最高,需要引起災(zāi)害管理部門的重視；4號線、8號線和10號線處于中等內(nèi)澇風(fēng)險水平；1號線、7號線和9號線內(nèi)澇風(fēng)險最低。 (9)上海中心城區(qū)暴雨內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害危險性情景分析結(jié)果表明,上海市中心城區(qū)由不同概率的降水所導(dǎo)致的區(qū)域內(nèi)澇危險性空間差異顯著。不同概率的降水導(dǎo)致的區(qū)域內(nèi)澇危險性不同,降雨強度越大,形成的內(nèi)澇積水越深,區(qū)域內(nèi)澇危險性也就越大；相同概率的降水引發(fā)的內(nèi)澇危險性在不同區(qū)域亦不同,總體上,楊浦區(qū)、長寧區(qū)和虹口區(qū)內(nèi)澇危險性最高；徐匯區(qū)、普陀區(qū)和閘北區(qū)內(nèi)澇危險性處于中等水平；靜安區(qū)、黃浦區(qū)和盧灣區(qū)內(nèi)澇危險性最低。 (10)中心城區(qū)住宅暴雨內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害暴露性分析結(jié)果表明,在不同情境下,中心城區(qū)各區(qū)住宅在暴雨內(nèi)澇中的暴露性大小存在一定的空間差異性。總體看來,區(qū)域住宅暴露性程度隨著降雨強度的增大而增大；楊浦區(qū)、普陀區(qū)和徐匯區(qū)是暴雨內(nèi)澇對區(qū)域住宅影響最嚴(yán)重的區(qū)域；影響中等的區(qū)域是長寧區(qū)、閘北區(qū)和虹口區(qū)；暴雨內(nèi)澇對區(qū)域住宅影響較小的區(qū)域為黃浦區(qū)、靜安區(qū)和盧灣區(qū)。此外,在不同情境下,上海市中心城區(qū)最易發(fā)生室內(nèi)進水的住宅類型為舊式住宅與倉庫。 (11)中心城區(qū)住宅暴雨內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害脆弱性分析結(jié)果顯示：舊式住宅是建筑結(jié)構(gòu)最易受損的住宅類型,其次是新式住宅,別墅式住宅建筑結(jié)構(gòu)最不易受到內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害的影響；整體上,隨著降雨強度的增大,區(qū)域住宅災(zāi)損程度與室內(nèi)財產(chǎn)受損程度也逐漸增大,受損住宅類型逐漸增多；暴雨內(nèi)澇對區(qū)域住宅建筑結(jié)構(gòu)影響最嚴(yán)重的區(qū)域為楊浦區(qū)、普陀區(qū)和徐匯區(qū),影響中等的區(qū)域為長寧區(qū)、閘北區(qū)和虹口區(qū),影響較小的區(qū)域為黃浦區(qū)、靜安區(qū)和盧灣區(qū)；暴雨內(nèi)澇對區(qū)域住宅室內(nèi)財產(chǎn)影響最嚴(yán)重的區(qū)域為楊浦區(qū)和長寧區(qū),影響中等的區(qū)域是普陀區(qū)、徐匯區(qū)、虹口區(qū)和閘北區(qū),影響較小的區(qū)域為黃浦區(qū)、靜安區(qū)和盧灣區(qū)；住宅室內(nèi)地板與墻壁是最易受內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害影響的居民財產(chǎn)類型。 (12)中心城區(qū)住宅暴雨內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險分析評估結(jié)果顯示：中心城區(qū)住宅風(fēng)險空間差異顯著；隨著降水強度的不斷增大,暴雨內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害給中心城區(qū)住宅造成的經(jīng)濟損失也從無到有,逐漸增大；上海市中心城區(qū)住宅暴雨內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害年均損失約為22254166元,中心城區(qū)住宅暴雨內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險大小排序為：楊浦區(qū)普陀區(qū)長寧區(qū)虹口區(qū)徐匯區(qū)閘北區(qū)靜安區(qū)盧灣區(qū)黃浦區(qū)；由于全球氣候變化與人類活動的影響,上海市降水強度與頻率均可能發(fā)生變化,從而導(dǎo)致中心城區(qū)住宅暴雨內(nèi)澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(損失)處于一個動態(tài)的變化過程之中。 (13)初步建立了上海市中心城區(qū)住宅災(zāi)損-暴雨年超越概率曲線與數(shù)學(xué)公式以及不同類型住宅災(zāi)損-暴雨年超越概率曲線與數(shù)學(xué)公式,并基于對各區(qū)不同情景下的住宅災(zāi)損狀況,建立了中心城區(qū)9個行政區(qū)的住宅災(zāi)損-暴雨年超越概率曲線庫與數(shù)學(xué)公式集。
[Abstract]:In the context of global warming and rising sea level, with the continuous improvement of the level of urbanization, urban population and wealth are constantly accumulating, all kinds of building facilities are denser, the natural disaster exposure and vulnerability of urban system increase, and the risk of natural disasters is more severe. It is located in Shanghai of the Yangtze River Estuary Delta. The city has played a leading role in the development and construction of our country's social and economic development, and it has been plagued by rainstorm waterlogging in recent years in other coastal cities of China. This paper is a key project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, "analysis of the emergency scenario of natural disaster risk in coastal cities" (numbered: 40730526) and East China Normal University Under the support of the doctoral graduate student award project (number: XRZZ2010024), the theoretical method and process paradigm of urban rainstorm disaster risk assessment are constructed by considering the characteristics of different types of disaster bearing bodies in the urban system, and the empirical study is carried out in Shanghai as an example. The following results are taken as follows:
(1) on the basis of systematic analysis of the composition of urban system, the types of urban flood and waterlogging disasters, the system composition and characteristics are deeply analyzed. Based on the understanding of the concept of urban flood and waterlogging hazard risk, the Constitution and characteristics of the urban flood disaster risk system are systematically combed, and the types of disaster bearing bodies with different characteristics in the city are put forward respectively. On the basis of scenario simulation analysis, the risk assessment method and process of the rainstorm waterlogging disaster in the ground building and the method and process of the risk assessment of the rainstorm in the underground space based on the scenario simulation analysis.
(2) on the macro level, the flood disaster rate in Shanghai is high and uneven, and the number of flood disasters is increasing with time. The flood type in Shanghai is the main type, and it is more prominent in the new China after the founding of new China. The flood disaster and storm tide type flood times in Shanghai all show a obvious rising trend with the time change. Moreover, the waterlogging frequency curve is the closest to the total flood curve.
(3) on the microcosmic, in 251-2000 years, in addition to Chongming County, the flood types of the other areas in the rest of the city of Shanghai were mainly waterlogging, and the flood types in all districts and counties of Shanghai in 1949-2000 years were the main types of flood. Although the characteristics of each district and County were different in different periods of time, the characteristics of the unevenness of flood disasters were all shown. In addition, Minhang was in addition to Minhang. The flood disaster frequency curve shows an inverted "U" distribution, and the flood frequency of other counties increases gradually with time.
(4) from a long time scale (251-2000 years), Qingpu, Pudong New Area, Minhang District, Jiading District, Baoshan District, Songjiang District and Fengxian District should pay special attention to the prevention and control of Flood flood, the risk of Flood flood in Jinshan District is in the middle level, the flood risk of overflow type in urban and Chongming county is relatively small; the flood type flood wind in Pudong New Area is relatively small. The risk of flood type flood in Minhang District, Baoshan District and Qingpu is middle level, and the impact of waterlogging flood is relatively small on Jiading District, urban, Songjiang District, Fengxian District, Jinshan District and Chongming County, Pudong New Area storm tide flood risk is the highest, Baoshan District, Minhang District and Chongming County storm tide type flood risk is at the middle level. The impact of storm tide floods on Jiading District, Qingpu, Songjiang District, downtown, Fengxian District and Jinshan District is smaller. On the whole, the comprehensive risk of the floods in Pudong New Area and Minhang District is high, and the comprehensive risk of the floods in Baoshan District, Qingpu, Jiading District and Songjiang District is in the middle level, and the comprehensive risk of flood in Fengxian District, Jinshan District, downtown and county is relatively small.
(5) from a short time scale (1949-2000 years), the flood risk of flood in Qingpu district is the largest, the flood risk of flood in Songjiang District, Jinshan District, Jiading District, Baoshan District and Chongming county is at the middle level, Fengxian District, Pudong New Area, Minhang District and urban overflow flood risk is the smallest, the flood risk of urban waterlogging type is the largest, and the other districts and counties are waterlogging The risk of flood is relatively small; urban, Pudong New Area, Baoshan District storm flood risk is relatively high, Songjiang District, Jinshan District, Fengxian District, Minhang District and Chongming are at the middle level, and the storm tide floods have minimal impact on Qingpu and Jiading District; on the whole, the overall risk of flood disaster in urban, Qingpu and Baoshan District is relatively higher. High, Pudong New Area, Songjiang District, Jinshan District are in the middle level, Chongming County, Jiading District, Fengxian District and Minhang District are relatively small. The urban area should be the priority for the management of the risk management of the flood disaster in Shanghai.
(6) taking Pudong New Area, Shanghai as an example, the empirical study on the influence of land use / Cover Change on the urban waterlogging disaster of typical environmental changes of pregnancy found that the urban land use / cover change leads to the increase of the runoff depth, but the effect of land use / Cover Change on the surface runoff in different periods of urbanization is different. In the year of.1994-2000, the surface runoff depth increased greatly; in the 2000-2003 year, the surface runoff depth continued to increase, but the increase was very small. In the 2003-2006 year, the surface runoff depth continued to increase, and the increase was higher than that of the 2000-2003 years. With the continuous improvement of the urbanization level, the type and structure of land use and structure were huge. The large change not only has a great influence on the environment of the urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster, but also has a certain influence on the probability and intensity of the occurrence of disaster factors and the type and structure of the disaster bearing body. The above effects brought by the change of land use cover will greatly increase the availability of the urban rainstorm flood disaster.
(7) according to the unique characteristics of the underlying surface of the urban system, the effect of the surface buildings on the rainfall runoff and the only drainage way of the pumping station for the city are taken into full consideration, and a high precision comprehensive model of the urban terrain model, the urban rainfall runoff model, the Terrain Influence correction model and the GIS spatial analysis module is constructed. Simplified urban rainstorm waterlogging model, which has the characteristics of simple calculation and short simulation time.
(8) the analysis of the risk scenario of rainstorm waterlogging in subway system in central urban area shows that the overall risk of rainstorm waterlogging risk is not high in downtown Shanghai. The number of subway exports with potential risks is 40, which accounts for the high risk level of waterlogging in No. 1 and Lou Shan Guan Road, 11.6%. of Shanghai West Railway Station, which is at the middle risk level. There are 18 subway exports, and 20 subway exports are low risk exports. On the whole, the highest risk of waterlogging in line 2 and line 11 needs to be paid attention to by the disaster management department; line 4, line 8 and line 10 are at the risk level of moderate waterlogging; the risk of waterlogging in the 1 line, the 7 line and the 9 line is the lowest.
(9) the analysis of the dangerous situation of rainstorm waterlogging hazard in the central city of Shanghai shows that the regional waterlogging hazard caused by different probability of precipitation in the central city of Shanghai is significant. The rainfall caused by different probability of precipitation is different, the greater the rainfall intensity is, the deeper the water logging water is, the danger of waterlogging in the region is also. The greater the risk of waterlogging caused by the same probability of precipitation in different regions, in general, Yangpu District, Changning District and Hongkou District have the highest risk of waterlogging; Xuhui District, Putuo District and Zhabei District are at a moderate risk of waterlogging; Jingan District, Huangpu District and Luwan District have the lowest waterlogging risk.
(10) the exposure analysis of the rainstorm waterlogging in the urban residential area shows that there is a certain spatial difference in the exposure size of the residential housing in the rainstorm waterlogging in different areas in different situations. In general, the exposure degree of the residential area increases with the increase of rainfall intensity; Yangpu District, Putuo District and Xuhui District are rainstorms. Water logging has the most serious impact on regional housing; the middle areas are Changning District, Zhabei District and Hongkou District, and the areas with small impact on regional housing are Huangpu District, Jingan District and Luwan District. In addition, in different situations, the most accessible residential type of indoor water in the downtown of Shanghai is the old type of residential and warehouse.
(11) the result of the vulnerability analysis of the rainstorm waterlogging disaster in the urban residential area shows that the old housing is the most vulnerable residential type of the building structure, the next is the new type house, the villa type residential building structure is the most difficult to be affected by the waterlogging disaster; on the whole, with the increase of rainfall intensity, the degree of regional housing disaster and the damage process of the indoor property The type of damaged housing is increasing gradually, and the most serious areas affecting the residential building structure in the region are Yangpu District, Putuo District and Xuhui District, and the middle areas are Changning District, Zhabei District and Hongkou District, the smaller areas are Huangpu District, Jingan District and Luwan District, and the rainstorm waterlogging to the residential indoor room. The most seriously affected areas are Yangpu District and Changning District, and the middle areas are Putuo District, Xuhui District, Hongkou District and Zhabei District, and the smaller areas are Huangpu District, Jingan District and Luwan District; residential indoor floors and walls are the most vulnerable to residents' property types.
(12) the risk analysis and evaluation of the rainstorm waterlogging disaster in the central urban area shows that the residential risk space of the central urban area has a significant difference. With the increase of the rainfall intensity, the economic loss caused by the rainstorm waterlogging to the residential buildings in the central urban area is gradually increasing, and the annual average loss of the rainstorm waterlogging disaster in the downtown of Shanghai city is average. The loss is 22254166 yuan, and the risk of rainstorm waterlogging in the central urban area is ranked as: Putuo District, Changning District, Hongkou District, Xuhui District, Zhabei District Jingan District and Luwan District Huangpu District. Due to the global climate change and human activities, the precipitation intensity and frequency of Shanghai can be changed, resulting in the urban residential storm in the central city. The risk (loss) of rain waterlogging is in a dynamic process.
(13) a preliminary establishment of a flood storm year transcendental probability curve and mathematical formula as well as a mathematical formula for the annual surpassing probability of different types of residential damage in Shanghai city centre urban area, and based on the situation of the residential disaster under different scenarios in various districts, the residential disaster of the 9 administrative areas in the central urban area - the surpassing probability curve of the rainstorm year is set up. The line library and the set of mathematical formulas.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：P426.616

【引證文獻】

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1 陳珂;長江三角洲自然災(zāi)害數(shù)據(jù)庫建設(shè)與風(fēng)險評估研究[D];華東師范大學(xué);2013年

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1 宗寧;城市社區(qū)水災(zāi)脆弱性評估及風(fēng)險研究[D];華東師范大學(xué);2013年

2 郭恩亮;遼寧中部地區(qū)暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評價[D];遼寧師范大學(xué);2013年

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本文編號：1918098