發(fā)布時間：2018-04-16 20:36

  本文選題：沖突分析 + 系統(tǒng)yoyo模型��； 參考：《南京航空航天大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：沖突作為一種普遍現(xiàn)象廣泛地存在于政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)生活、軍事、文化等各個領(lǐng)域。在政治領(lǐng)域,如中央政府與地方政府關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)限購問題、在野黨同執(zhí)政黨之間沖突;在經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域,如中國同歐盟關(guān)于風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)的貿(mào)易爭奪和貿(mào)易戰(zhàn),跨國公司、利益集團(tuán)間爭奪與占領(lǐng)市場份額,家庭成員間分配消費(fèi)品;在軍事領(lǐng)域,如戰(zhàn)國時期七國爭霸,東漢末年的三國爭雄,宋朝時期宋、遼、金間的領(lǐng)土爭奪,中日釣魚島沖突,南海領(lǐng)土爭端,中印邊界問題、敘利亞問題,朝鮮問題,伊朗核問題等;在文化領(lǐng)域,西方不同基督教派間的沖突;佛教、道教、基督教、伊斯蘭教等不同宗教間的在不同地區(qū)的此消彼長,繁衍或泯滅;不同文明間的沖突(如中國文明同西方文明的沖突、古埃及文明同古希臘、波斯文明同古羅馬文明的沖突)�？梢哉f,沖突問題無處不在,滲透到我們生活的每個角落,大到宇宙爭霸、國家戰(zhàn)爭,小到戀愛中情侶的感情問題、個人對于時間的安排,并在不同層面、不同程度地影響著人們的生活,并成為個人、管理者、決策者、學(xué)術(shù)界和政府部門高度關(guān)注的焦點。沖突是指兩個或兩個以上的個人或集團(tuán)為了各自的利益采取相應(yīng)的行動,以達(dá)到戰(zhàn)勝他人目的所形成的一種狀態(tài),它產(chǎn)生于系統(tǒng)中各方所追求目標(biāo)的對立性。由于沖突各方同處于一個系統(tǒng)中,各方是互相聯(lián)系的。由于沖突體所追求的目標(biāo)是對立的,各方又是互相制約,沖突各方既制約又聯(lián)系,既對立又統(tǒng)一,形成了各種各樣的沖突表現(xiàn)形式。為了更好地認(rèn)識沖突和解決沖突,減少不必要的沖突升級,促進(jìn)沖突各方更好地和平共處,維護(hù)所處系統(tǒng)的良好運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)和發(fā)展,需要將沖突問題系統(tǒng)地加以研究,構(gòu)建一套沖突分析的完整理論體系�；�于豐富和完善沖突分析的理論體系,本文從沖突問題描述、對策分析、沖突模型優(yōu)化、沖突演變控制等方面展開研究,主要的研究成果包括以下幾個方面:(1)基于系統(tǒng)yoyo模型、經(jīng)典沖突分析、粗糙集沖突分析的思想與方法,重構(gòu)了F-H沖突分析模型和palawk沖突分析方法,并將其現(xiàn)有沖突分析方法進(jìn)行有機(jī)統(tǒng)一;利用直覺模糊集,構(gòu)建了直覺模糊沖突分析模型,定義了沖突函數(shù)和沖突聯(lián)盟,有效地解決了現(xiàn)有沖突分析方法描述沖突問題過于生硬,沖突系統(tǒng)所提供的信息太抽象,以致無法找到系統(tǒng)中各決策者或聯(lián)盟比較理想的策略集,同時將決策者對于不同的爭端事件的重視程度也近作同等看待等問題;利用馬兒科夫鏈,構(gòu)建了動態(tài)沖突分析模型和動態(tài)直覺模糊沖突分析模型,有效地描述現(xiàn)實的沖突系統(tǒng)的動態(tài)變化、系統(tǒng)的沖突狀況,分析沖突系統(tǒng)的局勢轉(zhuǎn)變與沖突系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定性,預(yù)測沖突的可能局勢,采取相應(yīng)地策略。(2)針對既有沖突分析模型僅局限于研究和解決某一方面沖突問題,尚未形成一個統(tǒng)一的沖突分析理論框架,且現(xiàn)有的沖突分析模型存在著諸如難以編程進(jìn)行計算機(jī)操作等問題,本文利用粗糙集、博弈論、經(jīng)典沖突分析方法、圖模型,構(gòu)建了具有兩套信息系統(tǒng)的一般沖突分沖突分析建模技術(shù)研究析模型,并針對沖突事件相互獨立和相互關(guān)聯(lián)兩種情況的沖突問題,構(gòu)建了不完備信息三維沖突分析模型和具有約束的沖突分析模型,設(shè)計了求解均衡沖突局勢的算法,從而有機(jī)地統(tǒng)一了現(xiàn)有的沖突分析模型和方法,豐富、完善了沖突分析的理論體系。(3)超沖突問題與我們生活密切相關(guān),研究超沖突分析模型具有重要的理論價值和應(yīng)用價值。本文提出超沖突均衡的概念,根據(jù)沖突系統(tǒng)含有的超沖突體數(shù)目,利用yoyo模型、粗糙集、博弈論等理論的思想與方法,研究并構(gòu)建了單層超沖突分析模型和兩類雙層超沖突分析模型,有效地描述和解決具有單個超沖突和多個超沖突體的超沖突問題,從而將沖突分析模型的建模對象從具有等地位、對稱信息的情形延伸至力量失衡的情形,豐富和發(fā)展了沖突分析方法,拓展了應(yīng)用范圍。(4)監(jiān)控和調(diào)節(jié)沖突系統(tǒng)的演化,使其朝著對我們有利的方向發(fā)展,是研究沖突問題的重要內(nèi)容。本文利用控制論和一般系統(tǒng)理論的思想與方法,針對沖突系統(tǒng)內(nèi)的沖突事件相互獨立和含有多超級沖突體多一般沖突體的沖突問題,分別構(gòu)建了沖突穩(wěn)定模型和雙層超沖突穩(wěn)定模型,并用其解決貨幣戰(zhàn)爭和主制造商與供應(yīng)商的沖突問題,從而增強(qiáng)了沖突分析模型的操作性和實用性。
[Abstract]:The conflict as a common phenomenon exists widely in the political, economic, military, cultural and other fields. In the field of politics, such as the central government and local government on the purchase of real estate, the conflict between the opposition party and the ruling party; in the economic field, such as China with the EU on wind power industry and trade for a trade war the multinational companies, interest groups and compete for market share, consumer goods distribution among family members; in the military field, such as the hegemony of the Warring States period, the Eastern Han Dynasty Three Kingdoms, the Song Dynasty song, Liao, Jin territory for the Diaoyu Island conflict, territorial disputes in the South China Sea, the Sino Indian border issue, Syria issue, North Korea, Iran nuclear issue; in the field of culture, conflict between Western different Christian sects of Buddhism, Taoism, Christianity; Islam in different regions of the trade-off between religions, reproduction or perish Destroy; conflict among different civilizations (such as Chinese civilization and Western civilization conflict, the ancient Egyptian civilization with ancient Greek, Persian civilization with ancient Rome civilization conflict). It can be said that the conflict is everywhere, into every corner of our lives, to the large universe of hegemony, national war, small to emotional problems in love couples the personal plan for the time, and at different levels, different degrees of impact on people's lives, and as individuals, managers, decision makers, the focus of attention in academic circles and government departments. The conflict refers to two or more than two individuals or groups for their own interests to take corresponding actions. A state in order to win others to form, it produces opposition parties in the system goal. Because the parties to the conflict at the same system, the parties are interconnected. Pursued by the conflict body. The subject is the opposite parties, and restrict each other, the parties to the conflict control and connection, unity of opposites, the formation of a variety of forms of conflict. In order to better understand the conflict and resolve conflicts, reduce unnecessary conflicts and upgrading, promote the parties to the conflict to better peace, good operation and development of maintenance system the need to study systematically the conflict, to build a complete theoretical system of a conflict. To enrich and improve the theory system based on conflict analysis, this article from the conflict problem description, countermeasure analysis, conflict model optimization, study the conflict evolution control, the research results mainly include the following aspects: (1) the system based on the yoyo model, the classic conflict analysis, ideas and methods of rough set conflict analysis, conflict analysis and reconstruction of the F-H model palawk conflict analysis method, and the existing conflict analysis Method of organic unity; using intuitionistic fuzzy sets, intuitionistic fuzzy conflict analysis model is constructed, the definition of conflict and conflict function alliance, effectively solves the conflict analysis method to describe the conflict is too stiff, provide the conflict information system is too abstract for each decision that can not find the system or ideal strategy alliance at the same time will be set, decision makers for the degree of attention of different dispute events also's equal; the horse pediatric Markov chains, construct dynamic conflict analysis model and dynamic intuitionistic fuzzy conflict analysis model, effectively describe the dynamic changes of the real system conflict, conflict system, stability analysis of system change conflict situation conflict with the system, may predict the conflict situation, adopt corresponding strategies. (2) according to the model of conflict analysis is limited to research and solve a party both Face the conflict, has not yet formed a unified theoretical framework and the existing conflict analysis, conflict analysis model has computer operation problems such as difficult programming, using rough set theory, game theory, the classical method of conflict analysis, graph model, construct a general conflict with the two sets of information system for the conflict analysis modeling research analysis model for conflict and conflict between independent and interrelated two situations, constructed the conflict of incomplete information model of conflict analysis and 3D analysis model with constraints, solving the equilibrium conflict situation in algorithm design, thus a unification of conflict analysis model and method, the existing rich, improve the theoretical system conflict analysis. (3) over the conflict is closely related with our life, study of conflict analysis model has important theoretical value and application value of this. A concept of conflict equilibrium, according to the number of super body containing conflict conflict system, using the yoyo model, rough sets, the ideas and methods of game theory, studied and constructed the monolayer conflict analysis model and two kinds of double super conflict analysis model, effectively describe conflict will has a single and multiple super conflict super conflict reconciliation, and conflict analysis model from the object position with the symmetric information case, extending to the power imbalance, enriches and develops the method of conflict analysis, expand the scope of application. (4) the evolution of monitoring and regulating system of conflict, make it towards a favorable direction for us development is an important content of research on the conflict. Theory and general system theory and method in this paper using the control, the conflict for the conflict within the system are independent of each other and contains many super multi general conflict conflict In order to solve the conflict problem, we construct the conflict stability model and the two-tier super conflict stability model respectively, and use it to solve the conflict between the currency war and the main manufacturer and supplier, so as to enhance the operability and practicability of the conflict analysis model.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：N945.12

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本文編號：1760482