發(fā)布時間：2018-02-27 00:02

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 財務(wù)風(fēng)險 風(fēng)險預(yù)警 功效系數(shù)法　出處：《哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的市場化與全球化,以及政府近幾年對中小企業(yè)的重點(diǎn)關(guān)注,近十年融資擔(dān)保公司在這樣的環(huán)境下迅速成長,這些快速成長的擔(dān)保公司在當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢下十分矚目。企業(yè)在面對難得的機(jī)會時,也避免不了同時要承擔(dān)一定的風(fēng)險,擔(dān)保公司在成長中的風(fēng)險問題也會逐漸顯現(xiàn)出來。財務(wù)風(fēng)險是最能體現(xiàn)問題最直接的一種,如果企業(yè)不重視財務(wù)風(fēng)險,忽視對其的管理及預(yù)警,后果將會很嚴(yán)重,會導(dǎo)致運(yùn)營困難甚至破產(chǎn)倒閉。若要提前防范財務(wù)風(fēng)險,就要通過建立財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警系統(tǒng)以防患于未然,有助于企業(yè)盡早做出避免財務(wù)風(fēng)險發(fā)生的決策。研究對象均信擔(dān)保是哈爾濱市政府參股的混合所有制擔(dān)保公司,是黑龍江省為中小企業(yè)提供金融服務(wù)的先進(jìn)單位。均信擔(dān)保受內(nèi)外部因素的影響,其財務(wù)風(fēng)險日益凸顯。因此,在內(nèi)憂外患的情況下,均信擔(dān)保為防范及緩解存在的風(fēng)險應(yīng)盡快構(gòu)建財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警體系。在研究中擬建立適合均信擔(dān)保的財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警系統(tǒng),在進(jìn)行預(yù)警分析時采用功效系數(shù)法幫助分析財務(wù)指標(biāo)。具體研究思路如下:首先對國外及國內(nèi)學(xué)者對擔(dān)保公司財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警的研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析并總結(jié),介紹了擔(dān)保機(jī)構(gòu)財務(wù)風(fēng)險及其財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警的概念,闡述了采用功效系數(shù)法的必要性;其次,通過分析均信擔(dān)保公司當(dāng)前的財務(wù)狀況及財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警的管理現(xiàn)狀,提出為均信擔(dān)保財務(wù)風(fēng)險構(gòu)建預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的必要性;接著,構(gòu)建預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的第一步,要先選取合適的財務(wù)指標(biāo)組成財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系,設(shè)置各個指標(biāo)的預(yù)警區(qū)間,合成預(yù)警模型后,對均信擔(dān)保公司的財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警模型進(jìn)行應(yīng)用,進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)分析;最后,根據(jù)均信擔(dān)保的財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警系統(tǒng)得出的數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果分析其財務(wù)方面存在的隱患,對保障財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行提出了建議,并針對緩釋內(nèi)外部財務(wù)風(fēng)險提出了相應(yīng)對策。通過研究發(fā)現(xiàn),建立均信擔(dān)保財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警系統(tǒng)有助于公司預(yù)測其面臨的財務(wù)風(fēng)險。利用構(gòu)建的適合均信擔(dān)保的財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警系統(tǒng),可以幫助企業(yè)及時發(fā)現(xiàn)財務(wù)風(fēng)險,加強(qiáng)對財務(wù)風(fēng)險的管控,幫助均信擔(dān)保公司實(shí)現(xiàn)企業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。另外,財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警系統(tǒng)不僅僅服務(wù)于管理者,均信擔(dān)保的其他利益相關(guān)者也可以從中受益,為決策提供幫助。
[Abstract]:With the marketization and globalization of the economy, and the government's focus on small and medium-sized enterprises in recent years, the financing guarantee companies have grown rapidly in such an environment in the past decade. These fast-growing guarantee companies are very attractive in the current economic situation. In the face of rare opportunities, enterprises cannot avoid taking certain risks at the same time. The growing risk problem of the guarantee company will also gradually emerge. Financial risk is the most direct kind of problem. If the enterprise does not attach importance to the financial risk and neglects its management and early warning, the consequences will be very serious. It can lead to operational difficulties and even bankruptcy. If you want to guard against financial risks in advance, you have to put in place a financial risk warning system to prevent trouble in the first place. It is helpful for enterprises to make decisions to avoid financial risks as soon as possible. It is an advanced unit in Heilongjiang Province to provide financial services to small and medium-sized enterprises. Due to the influence of internal and external factors, the financial risk of the guarantee is increasingly prominent. Therefore, in the case of internal and external problems, In order to prevent and mitigate the existing risks, the early warning system of financial risk should be set up as soon as possible. In the early warning analysis, the efficiency coefficient method is used to help the analysis of financial indicators. The specific research ideas are as follows: firstly, the current research situation of financial risk early warning of guarantee companies is analyzed and summarized by foreign and domestic scholars. This paper introduces the concept of guarantee institution financial risk and its financial risk warning, expounds the necessity of adopting the efficiency coefficient method, secondly, analyzes the current financial situation and the management status of the financial risk early warning of the guarantee company. The necessity of constructing an early warning system for the guarantee of financial risk is put forward. Then, the first step of constructing the early warning system is to select the appropriate financial index to form the early warning index system of financial risk, and to set up the early warning interval of each index. After synthesizing the early warning model, the financial risk early warning model of Zhongxin guarantee company is applied to analyze the data. Finally, according to the data result of the financial risk early warning system, the hidden dangers in financial aspects are analyzed. Some suggestions are put forward to ensure the operation of the financial risk early warning system, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward to mitigate the internal and external financial risks. Establishing the financial risk early warning system can help the company forecast the financial risk it faces. Using the financial risk early warning system which is suitable for the guarantee, it can help the enterprise to discover the financial risk in time and strengthen the control of the financial risk. In addition, the early warning system of financial risk not only serves managers, but also other stakeholders can benefit from it and provide help for decision making.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.39;F830.42

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