發(fā)布時間：2018-03-29 06:44

  本文選題：經(jīng)濟周期波動　切入點：產(chǎn)業(yè)結構變動　出處：《江西財經(jīng)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的調整之間是相輔相承的關系,兩者統(tǒng)一于人類社會發(fā)展規(guī)律之中。一般地,經(jīng)濟社會從低級的奴隸制度到高級的資本主義制度再到更高級的社會主義制度的規(guī)律依次運動與發(fā)展,促使社會產(chǎn)業(yè)結構逐步調整,推動著產(chǎn)業(yè)結構由低級向高級演進。但經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展并不是一帆風順的,而是曲折前進的。在不同的經(jīng)濟波動階段,其對產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的影響方向和程度可能存在很大的差別,從而會導致產(chǎn)業(yè)結構轉變也呈現(xiàn)出不同的變動趨勢。自1929年爆發(fā)了全球性經(jīng)濟危機以來,關于經(jīng)濟周期波動與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構變動的關聯(lián)性研究層出不窮,國內也有不少學者也涉足該領域的研究,但側重于研究產(chǎn)業(yè)結構演進對經(jīng)濟周期波動的效用性,而研究經(jīng)濟周期波動對產(chǎn)業(yè)結構演進作用就較為鮮有。因此,本文重點進行經(jīng)濟周期波動對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構演進研究就具有十分重要的意義。 本文以西方經(jīng)濟學為基礎,以經(jīng)濟周期波動理論與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構演進理論為科學指導,在吸收并借鑒前人相關研究的基礎上,動態(tài)分析我國經(jīng)濟擴張和收縮對產(chǎn)業(yè)結構變動程度及變動方向的影響。在研究過程中,首先運用貝葉斯SETAR模型對我國經(jīng)濟周期進行識別劃分,并運用Granger因果檢驗方法對經(jīng)濟波動與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構變動關系進行因果判斷。結果表明,貝葉斯SETAR方法能有效識別出我國經(jīng)濟的擴張和收縮兩個波動階段,同時Granger因果檢驗也證明經(jīng)濟周期波動是我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構變動的原因。然后定性分析經(jīng)濟周期波動對產(chǎn)業(yè)結構整體變動的影響,并進一步分析經(jīng)濟周期波動對三次產(chǎn)業(yè)中各個行業(yè)或部門的變動。通過實證分析,得出以下結論：我國經(jīng)濟周期波動是產(chǎn)業(yè)結構向合理化和高級化演進的推動力；經(jīng)濟擴張與收縮階段對產(chǎn)業(yè)結構變動和產(chǎn)業(yè)部門結構變動的影響方向和程度不盡相同,經(jīng)濟擴張對漁業(yè)、牧業(yè)、牧業(yè)、冶金工業(yè)、化學工業(yè)、石油工業(yè)、建材工業(yè)、建筑業(yè)、批發(fā)和零售業(yè)、金融業(yè)、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)等行業(yè)的影響較大,而在經(jīng)濟收縮時期,則農業(yè)、林業(yè)、冶金工業(yè)、電力工業(yè)、煤炭工業(yè)、機械工業(yè)、紡織工業(yè)等行業(yè)受經(jīng)濟下行的影響較為顯著。
[Abstract]:Social and economic development and the adjustment of industrial structure are complementary relations, they are unified in the laws of human social development. The laws of economic and social development from the lower level of slavery to the advanced capitalist system and to the higher level socialist system were followed by the movement and development, which prompted the gradual adjustment of the social industrial structure. Promoting the evolution of industrial structure from lower level to higher level. However, the development of economy is not plain sailing, but twists and turns. At different stages of economic fluctuation, the direction and degree of its influence on industrial structure may vary greatly. Since the global economic crisis broke out in 1929, the research on the correlation between the fluctuation of economic cycle and the change of industrial structure has emerged one after another. There are also many scholars in China who are involved in this field, but focus on the utility of the evolution of industrial structure to the fluctuation of economic cycle, but it is rare to study the effect of the fluctuation of economic cycle on the evolution of industrial structure. This paper focuses on business cycle fluctuations for the evolution of industrial structure in China has a very important significance. This paper is based on western economics, guided by the theory of business cycle fluctuation and the evolution of industrial structure, on the basis of absorbing and drawing lessons from previous studies. Dynamic analysis of the impact of economic expansion and contraction on the changing degree and direction of industrial structure in China. In the process of research, Bayesian SETAR model is used to identify and divide the economic cycle of our country. The Granger causality test method is used to judge the relationship between economic fluctuation and industrial structure change. The results show that the Bayesian SETAR method can effectively identify the two stages of economic expansion and contraction in China. At the same time, the Granger causality test also proves that the fluctuation of economic cycle is the reason of the change of industrial structure in China, and then qualitatively analyzes the influence of the fluctuation of economic cycle on the overall change of industrial structure. Through the empirical analysis, we draw the following conclusions: the economic cycle fluctuation is the driving force of the industrial structure evolution to rationalization and higher level; The impact of economic expansion and contraction on industrial structure changes and industrial sector structural changes are different. Economic expansion affects fisheries, animal husbandry, animal husbandry, metallurgical industry, chemical industry, petroleum industry, building materials industry, construction industry, Wholesale and retail trade, financial industry, real estate industry and other industries have a greater impact, but during the period of economic contraction, agriculture, forestry, metallurgical industry, electric power industry, coal industry, machinery industry, Textile industry and other industries affected by the economic downturn is more significant.
【學位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F121.3;F124.8

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