發(fā)布時間：2018-04-07 00:15

  本文選題：大興安嶺　切入點(diǎn)：地表死可燃物　出處：《東北林業(yè)大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：黑龍江省大興安嶺地區(qū)是我國面積最大、火災(zāi)最嚴(yán)重的林區(qū)。如何準(zhǔn)確和有效地對該地區(qū)森林地表死可燃物含水率進(jìn)行預(yù)測顯得尤為重要,同時提高該區(qū)地表細(xì)小死可燃物含水率預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確性對于促進(jìn)森林防火工作意義重大。在實(shí)驗(yàn)室內(nèi),對落葉松林、白樺林、落葉松-白樺混交林等3種林型可燃物含水率在不同溫、濕度條件下的動態(tài)變化進(jìn)行了測定,定量分析了空氣溫度和空氣相對濕度對可燃物平衡含水率和時滯的影響,選定了適用于本文中可燃物含水率預(yù)測模型構(gòu)建的Nelson和Simard等兩種平衡含水率動態(tài)方程。以大興安嶺地區(qū)西林吉林業(yè)局和南甕河保護(hù)區(qū)等2個研究區(qū)內(nèi)7種典型林型的地表死可燃物為研究對象,包括山楊-白樺混交林、樟子松林、興安落葉松林、白樺林、興安落葉松-白樺混交林、蒙古櫟林、溝塘草甸,分析了在春季和秋季防火期內(nèi),不同坡向(陰坡和陽坡)、不同坡位(上坡位、中坡位和下坡位)條件下,地表死可燃物含水率和氣象要素的動態(tài)變化。通過直接估測法(Nelson法和Simard法)和氣象要素回歸法,構(gòu)建了各林分地表死可燃物含水率預(yù)測模型,根據(jù)誤差評價了模型預(yù)測精度。選擇3種典型林型構(gòu)建了以小時為時間步長的含水率預(yù)測模型,分析了在更小時間尺度上建模對預(yù)測精度的影響。同時探討了不同距離氣象數(shù)據(jù)對預(yù)測模型精度的影響。主要研究結(jié)論如下：1、空氣溫度與平衡含水率和時滯呈負(fù)相關(guān),空氣相對濕度與二者呈正相關(guān)。Nelson模型和Simard模型對可燃物平衡含水率的擬合效果較好。兩種方法適用于本研究中可燃物含水率模型的構(gòu)建。2、不同條件下可燃物含水率的異質(zhì)性較強(qiáng)。陰坡落葉松林地表死可燃物含水率為最高,陽坡樟子松林可燃物含水率最低。可燃物含水率與不同氣象因子之間呈現(xiàn)顯著相關(guān)性,并且對不同時長氣象因子的響應(yīng)具有一定的滯后性。3、可燃物含水率預(yù)測模型：(1)3種方法中,Simard法模型預(yù)測精度最好,氣象要素回歸法模型預(yù)測精度最低。(2)陽坡山楊-白樺混交林模型預(yù)測效果最好、溝塘草甸的預(yù)測效果最差。(3)秋季防火期模型的預(yù)測精度高于春季防火期。(4)在區(qū)分不同坡向進(jìn)行建模時,陽坡林型預(yù)測模型預(yù)測精度高于陰坡林型。(5)陽坡林分模型的預(yù)測精度隨坡位的上升逐漸降低,下坡位模型的預(yù)測效果最好,陰坡林分與陽坡林分相反,上坡位模型預(yù)測精度最高。4、在更小時間尺度上(以小時為步長)構(gòu)建的可燃物含水率預(yù)測模型,精度高于以日為步長的預(yù)測模型,更好的滿足火行為預(yù)報中對地表死可燃物含水率預(yù)測精度的要求。5、通過實(shí)驗(yàn)樣地實(shí)測氣象數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建的可燃物含水率預(yù)測模型精度要高于使用遠(yuǎn)距離氣象站氣象數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建的模型,能更好的反應(yīng)可燃物含水率的真實(shí)變化情況。綜上所述,氣象要素、坡向、坡位、林型、以及構(gòu)建模型的時間尺度等條件均對地表死可燃物含水率的動態(tài)變化和模型預(yù)測精度產(chǎn)生影響;Nelson法、Simard法和氣象要素回歸法可在不同精度上對大興安嶺地區(qū)典型林分地表死可燃物含水率進(jìn)行預(yù)測,但需根據(jù)林型的不同和微地形的變化構(gòu)建相應(yīng)的預(yù)測模型。
[Abstract]:Greater Khingan Range area of Heilongjiang province is China's largest, the most serious forest fire. How to accurately and effectively on the surface of the forest area dead fuel moisture content forecast is very important, at the same time improve the surface area of fine dead fuel moisture content prediction accuracy of significance to promote the work of forest fire prevention. In the laboratory. The larch forest, birch forest, larch and birch mixed forest 3 types of forest fuel moisture in different temperature, dynamic changes of humidity conditions were determined, quantitative analysis of air temperature and relative humidity of combustible equilibrium moisture content and delay, selected applicable to water combustible paper rate prediction model was constructed by Nelson and Simard and other two kinds of dynamic equations of equilibrium moisture content. In the area of Greater Khingan Range Industry Bureau and Jilin Xilin Nanweng river protection area 2 of 7 kinds of typical The surface dead fuel forest types as the research object, including aspen and birch mixed forest, Pinus sylvestris, larch, birch forest in Xingan, Xingan - Mongolia Larch birch forest, oak forest, meadow pond, analyzed in spring and autumn fire period, different slope (slope and Yang Po), different the slope position (Upper slope, middle slope and lower slope) under the condition of dynamic change of surface dead fuel moisture content and meteorological factors. Through the direct estimation method (Nelson and Simard) and meteorological factors regression method, construct the prediction model of the forest surface dead fuel moisture content, according to the error evaluation model the accuracy of prediction. 3 kinds of typical forest types constructed water hourly time step rate prediction model, analyzes the influence of modeling in smaller time scales on prediction accuracy. We also study the influence of meteorological data on the prediction accuracy of the model in different distance. The main research The conclusions are as follows: 1, the air temperature was negatively correlated with the equilibrium moisture content and time delay, air relative humidity and two were positively correlated.Nelson model and the Simard model is better fitting effect to the combustible equilibrium moisture content. Two kinds of methods suitable for constructing the water fuel ratio model in this study,.2, fuel moisture content in different conditions under the shady slope heterogeneity. Larch surface dead fuel moisture content is the highest, sunny Mongolian pine forest fuel moisture content is lowest. Significant correlation between fuel moisture and different meteorological factors, and has long response of different meteorological factors when lag.3 fuel moisture prediction model: (1) 3 kinds of methods, the model prediction accuracy of Simard method is the best method, meteorological factors regression model prediction accuracy is lowest. (2) the best sunny - Aspen birch forest forecast model, forecasting the meadow pond The worst effect. (3) the prediction accuracy of model was higher than that in spring and autumn fire season fire. (4) in distinguishing different slopes when modeling on forest type prediction model is higher than that of shady slope forest types. (5) prediction model of sunny slope forest gradually decreased along with the rising slope, the best prediction effect a model of the slope, shady slope forest and sunny slope forest on the contrary, the top model prediction accuracy is the highest in.4, smaller time scales (in hours step) water combustible construction rate prediction model has higher accuracy than prediction model to date for the step, meet the fire behavior prediction better on the surface dead fuel moisture content.5 prediction precision, water combustible materials constructed by experimental plots measured meteorological data rate prediction model is more accurate than using remote weather station meteorological data model, the reaction fuel can be better with real water rate Situation. In summary, meteorological factors, slope aspect, slope position, forest type, and construct the model of time scale conditions have an impact on the surface dead fuel moisture content changes and the prediction accuracy of the model; Nelson method in different precision of typical forests in Greater Khingan Range area surface dead fuel moisture prediction rate the Simard method and the meteorological factors regression method, but according to the different forest types and micro topography change prediction model is constructed accordingly.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北林業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：S762.1

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前9條

1 金森;李亮;;時滯和平衡含水率直接估計(jì)法的有效性分析[J];林業(yè)科學(xué);2010年02期

2 劉曦;金森;;平衡含水率法預(yù)測死可燃物含水率的研究進(jìn)展[J];林業(yè)科學(xué);2007年12期

3 宋小寧,趙英時;應(yīng)用MODIS衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)提取植被—溫度—水分綜合指數(shù)的研究[J];地理與地理信息科學(xué);2004年02期

4 鄧湘雯,聶紹元,文定元,潘曉杰;南方杉木人工林可燃物負(fù)荷量預(yù)測模型的研究[J];湖南林業(yè)科技;2002年01期

5 方精云,陳安平;中國森林植被碳庫的動態(tài)變化及其意義[J];植物學(xué)報;2001年09期

6 金森,李緒堯,李有祥;幾種細(xì)小可燃物失水過程中含水率的變化規(guī)律[J];東北林業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報;2000年01期

7 舒立福,田曉瑞;國外森林防火工作現(xiàn)狀及展望[J];世界林業(yè)研究;1997年02期

8 何忠秋，李長勝，，張成鋼，馬麗華，于力，段向閣;森林可燃物含水量模型的研究[J];森林防火;1995年02期

9 胡海清;大興安嶺主要森林可燃物理化性質(zhì)測定與分析[J];森林防火;1995年01期

本文編號：1719542