發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-24 18:34

  本文選題：橋梁工程 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析�。� 參考：《浙江大學(xué)》2010年碩士論文

【摘要】： 橋梁工程的基本特點(diǎn)是投資巨大、技術(shù)復(fù)雜、工程涉及面廣、工程壽命周期長、一旦發(fā)生事故又影響重大。橋梁工程從立項(xiàng)到長期運(yùn)營過程中都存在著各種難以預(yù)料的因素,工程建設(shè)中發(fā)生失敗、失策對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)都將會(huì)帶來不可估量的損失。建立橋梁工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估體制,研究其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估理論、方法和管理規(guī)程,并對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目的各階段展開風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估,將有助于完善橋梁建設(shè)管理體制,制定應(yīng)對(duì)橋梁風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的有效措施,以期達(dá)到以最小的成本獲得工程最大的安全保障。 本文以臺(tái)縉高速東延段靈江大橋建設(shè)工程為背景,分析橋梁從建設(shè)方案論證階段到運(yùn)營期間各典型風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事態(tài)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素組成,利用定性方法進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別,列出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)清單。對(duì)識(shí)別后的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)做進(jìn)一步分析,采用定性和定量兩類方法,利用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法,建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失模型和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率模型。提出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率等級(jí)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失等級(jí)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)矩陣。通過風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失的計(jì)算獲得對(duì)橋梁風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事態(tài)的估計(jì)。 在成橋前期階段,橋梁方案設(shè)計(jì)的選擇受到橋梁所處位置自然環(huán)境、經(jīng)濟(jì)性以及施工工藝復(fù)雜程度等因素的影響,其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也是不同的。因此,通過靈江大橋的設(shè)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析,從預(yù)應(yīng)力混凝土連續(xù)梁橋、矮塔斜拉橋和獨(dú)塔斜拉橋三個(gè)方案中選取了結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)合理、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相對(duì)合理的矮塔斜拉橋方案。在此基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)其投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了分析,并提出設(shè)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制措施。 在施工階段,下部結(jié)構(gòu)施工方案的選擇受到施工現(xiàn)場(chǎng)的通航、地質(zhì)水文、氣候及施工條件等因素的影響。本文擬定雙壁鋼圍堰結(jié)合混凝土拌合船和搭設(shè)棧橋兩種下部結(jié)構(gòu)的施工方案,對(duì)其各自的施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別和分析,選定施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相對(duì)較小、費(fèi)用稍高、結(jié)構(gòu)穩(wěn)固、施工抵御臺(tái)風(fēng)及抗潮汐能力強(qiáng)的棧橋施工方案。 在運(yùn)營階段,考慮到靈江船運(yùn)比較繁忙的通航狀況,著重分析比較目前使用比較廣泛的幾個(gè)船撞橋的模型,提出采用AASHTO模型來對(duì)靈江大橋進(jìn)行船撞風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析,結(jié)果表明盡管船撞的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低,但還是應(yīng)該采取降低船撞風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的措施加以改進(jìn)。 論文還在最后綜合概括橋梁工程建設(shè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的目標(biāo)、內(nèi)容、策略、流程等基礎(chǔ)上,初步編制提出了橋梁工程建設(shè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的規(guī)程,可供有關(guān)部門參考。
[Abstract]:The basic characteristics of bridge engineering are huge investment, complex technology, wide scope of engineering, long life cycle of engineering, and great influence once accidents occur. There are all kinds of unpredictable factors in the process of bridge engineering from the establishment of project to the long-term operation. The failure of engineering construction will bring incalculable losses to the economic construction. Establishing a bridge engineering risk assessment system, studying its risk assessment theory, methods and management rules, and carrying out risk assessment for each stage of the project will help to perfect the bridge construction management system and formulate effective measures to deal with the bridge risk. In order to achieve the minimum cost of the project to obtain the maximum security. Based on the construction project of Taijin Expressway East Yanduanling River Bridge, this paper analyzes the risk factors of each typical risk situation of the bridge from the stage of construction plan demonstration to the period of operation, and uses qualitative method to identify the risk and make out the risk list. Further analysis is made on the risk after identification. The risk loss model and the risk probability model are established by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the qualitative and quantitative methods. The risk probability grade standard, risk loss grade standard and risk evaluation matrix are put forward. The risk state of the bridge is estimated by the calculation of risk probability and risk loss. In the early stage of bridge construction, the selection of bridge scheme design is influenced by the natural environment, economy and the complexity of construction technology, and the risk is different. Therefore, through the design risk analysis of Lingjiang Bridge, three schemes of prestressed concrete continuous girder bridge, low tower cable-stayed bridge and single tower cable-stayed bridge are selected, which have reasonable structural design and relatively reasonable risk. On this basis, the investment risk is analyzed, and the control measures of design risk and investment risk are put forward. In the construction stage, the selection of the substructure construction scheme is affected by the navigation, geological hydrology, climate and construction conditions of the construction site. In this paper, the construction scheme of two kinds of substructure of double wall steel cofferdam combined with concrete mixing ship and erecting trestle is drawn up. The construction risks are identified and analyzed. The construction risk is relatively small, the cost is slightly higher, and the structure is stable. The construction plan of trestle bridge with strong ability to resist typhoon and tide. In the operation phase, considering the busy navigation conditions of the Lingjiang River, this paper focuses on the analysis and comparison of several ship collision models which are widely used at present, and proposes to use the AASHTO model to analyze the ship collision risk of the Lingjiang Bridge. The results show that although the risk of ship collision is low, some measures should be taken to reduce the risk of collision. Finally, on the basis of synthetically summarizing the objectives, contents, strategies and processes of risk management of bridge engineering construction, the paper puts forward the regulations of risk management of bridge engineering construction preliminarily, which can be used as reference for relevant departments.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號(hào)】：U448.27

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 項(xiàng)貽強(qiáng);吳強(qiáng)強(qiáng);張婷婷;;基于AHP-FCE模型的橋梁設(shè)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估研究[J];土木工程學(xué)報(bào);2010年S2期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 譚志榮;長江干線船撞橋事件機(jī)理及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法集成研究[D];武漢理工大學(xué);2011年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前6條

1 張莉;橋梁工程坍塌事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析與對(duì)策研究[D];中南大學(xué);2011年

2 張科乾;懸浮隧道結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)分析與健康監(jiān)測(cè)[D];浙江大學(xué);2011年

3 劉艷芳;橋梁施工過程重大安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)動(dòng)態(tài)監(jiān)控[D];華中科技大學(xué);2011年

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5 宋建;城市橋梁運(yùn)營期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估與對(duì)策研究[D];天津大學(xué);2012年

6 楊磊;混凝土斜連續(xù)梁頂推施工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估與預(yù)防措施[D];長沙理工大學(xué);2012年

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本文編號(hào)：2062524