a国产,中文字幕久久波多野结衣AV,欧美粗大猛烈老熟妇,女人av天堂

當(dāng)前位置:主頁 > 管理論文 > 證券論文 >

地方政府債券違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-06-23 19:24

  本文選題:地方政府債券 + 違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn); 參考:《沈陽大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文


【摘要】:我國正在大力嘗試發(fā)展地方政府債券市場,而在地方政府債券發(fā)行過程中,確定合理發(fā)行規(guī)模和度量違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是面臨的重要問題。本文基于確定合理發(fā)債規(guī)模的視角,從定性分析和定量分析兩方面對地方政府債券違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行研究,并給出防范地方政府債券違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的建議。 本文的定性研究是在現(xiàn)有的相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)上,借鑒美國市政債券和日本地方公債的成熟經(jīng)驗(yàn),對我國地方政府債券違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的成因進(jìn)行分析,得出影響我國地方政府債券違約的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要包括地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、地方政府財(cái)政收支失衡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、地方政府信用缺失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、地方政府債券市場不健全帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 本文的定量研究選取地方財(cái)政收入這一普遍性的指標(biāo),利用引入Knight不確定性的KMV模型,以今年新增自行發(fā)債試點(diǎn)省之一的山東省為例,度量其發(fā)行的地方政府債券違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn),證明了引入Knight不確定性的KMV模型的適用性和可行性,為其他省市度量其發(fā)行的地方政府債券違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提供參考。根據(jù)定量分析的結(jié)果得到了2013年山東省地方政府債券的安全發(fā)行規(guī)模,在安全發(fā)行規(guī)模內(nèi),違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對發(fā)行規(guī)模的變化不明顯,但當(dāng)發(fā)行規(guī)模高于安全發(fā)行規(guī)模時(shí),違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對發(fā)行規(guī)模的變化特別敏感,隨著發(fā)行規(guī)模的增加而迅速增大;證明了Knight不確定性對違約距離和違約概率有較大影響。因此,我國地方政府債券的違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是不容忽視的。 根據(jù)定性分析和定量分析,本文給出了地方政府債券違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防范建議:要改善地方政府債券的發(fā)行環(huán)境,建立以信用評級制度和信息披露制度為代表的約束機(jī)制,,配置地方政府債券的信用增級措施來降低其違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的發(fā)生。
[Abstract]:China is trying hard to develop the local government bond market. In the process of issuing local government bonds, it is an important problem to determine the reasonable issuance scale and measure the default risk. Based on the perspective of determining the reasonable bond issuance scale, this paper studies the default risk of local government bonds from qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, and gives some suggestions on how to prevent the default risk of local government bonds. The qualitative research of this paper is to analyze the causes of default risk of local government bonds in China based on the existing relevant theories and the mature experience of American municipal bonds and Japanese local bonds. It is concluded that the risk of local government bond default mainly includes the risk of local government debt, the risk of local government fiscal imbalance, the risk of local government credit deficiency, and the risk of local government bond market unsoundness. Based on the KMV model with Knight uncertainty, the quantitative research of this paper selects the local fiscal revenue as a universal index and measures the default risk of local government bonds issued by Shandong Province, one of the newly self-issued pilot provinces, as an example. The applicability and feasibility of KMV model with Knight uncertainty are proved, which provides a reference for other provinces and cities to measure the default risk of local government bonds issued by Knight. According to the results of quantitative analysis, the security issuance scale of local government bonds in Shandong Province in 2013 is obtained. In the safe issuance scale, the default risk has no obvious change on the issuance scale, but when the issuance scale is higher than the safe issuance scale, Default risk is especially sensitive to the change of issuance scale and increases rapidly with the increase of issuance scale, which proves that Knight uncertainty has great influence on the distance of default and the probability of default. Therefore, the default risk of local government bonds can not be ignored. According to the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, this paper gives some suggestions on how to prevent the default risk of local government bonds: to improve the issuing environment of local government bonds, and to establish a constraint mechanism represented by credit rating system and information disclosure system. Allocate credit enhancement measures for local government bonds to reduce the risk of default.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:沈陽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號】:F812.5

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前4條

1 安國俊;;地方政府融資平臺風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與政府債務(wù)[J];中國金融;2010年07期

2 魏加寧;;推進(jìn)地方債市場化發(fā)行[J];中國投資;2009年05期

3 藺慶校;朱連才;;我國地方政府債券發(fā)行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范分析——基于會計(jì)信息披露的視角[J];浙江金融;2010年01期

4 王國剛;楊濤;;地方政府自行發(fā)債的金融機(jī)制[J];中國金融;2012年04期



本文編號:2058142

資料下載
論文發(fā)表

本文鏈接:http://www.wukwdryxk.cn/guanlilunwen/zhqtouz/2058142.html


Copyright(c)文論論文網(wǎng)All Rights Reserved | 網(wǎng)站地圖 |

版權(quán)申明:資料由用戶ae4b4***提供,本站僅收錄摘要或目錄,作者需要?jiǎng)h除請E-mail郵箱bigeng88@qq.com
av五月| 宜丰县| 欧美日韩视频在线网| 久久精品亚洲精品无码白云tv| 黑人巨大三根一起进| 亚洲av美女天堂一区二区三区| 人妻人人澡人人添人人爽视频| 加勒比一区二区| 天天干夜夜艹| 国产日产国无高清码2020| 国产乱子伦精品视频| 亚洲丝袜另类校园欧美| 日韩欧美亚洲综合久久影院ds| 国产精品自在线拍国产电影| 精品久久久久久无码专区不卡| 免费a级毛片18以上观看精品| 丁香五月欧美成人| 国产麻豆 9l 精品三级站| 临澧县| 杂多县| 欧美喷水| 一区二区日韩| 麻豆v视a频在线观看| 日韩啪啪视频| 欧美老肥婆性猛交视频| maomiav| 91香蕉亚洲精品一区二区| 蜜臀久久精品久久久久| 久9热这里有真品8| 精品欧美| 强壮公引诱人妻| 日韩免费| 性荡视频播放在线视频7777| 中文字幕精品一二三四五六七八| 打开这个你会感谢我的网站| 欧美人与物videos另类| 克拉玛依市| 久久机热免费视频| www.aaa69.com| 国产午夜福利亚洲第一| 亚洲www啪成人一区二区麻豆|