發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-05 11:39

  本文選題：學(xué)習(xí)曲線 + 發(fā)電成本��； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)(北京)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：“十三五”及未來(lái)一段時(shí)期,我國(guó)能源發(fā)展面臨著推進(jìn)能源生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)革命、保障國(guó)家能源戰(zhàn)略安全、實(shí)現(xiàn)由能源大國(guó)向能源強(qiáng)國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)變的艱巨任務(wù)。電力系統(tǒng)作為能源轉(zhuǎn)型的重要領(lǐng)域,電力部門(mén)的低碳發(fā)展和低碳轉(zhuǎn)型成為關(guān)鍵。作為我國(guó)耗煤主體,電力系統(tǒng)的能源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化大大滯后于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家,積極推動(dòng)我國(guó)電力系統(tǒng)的低碳轉(zhuǎn)型,是應(yīng)對(duì)氣候減排、環(huán)境和能源安全等問(wèn)題與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展目標(biāo)之間日益嚴(yán)峻的沖突的必然途徑。首先,本文基于系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型管理理論以及新型產(chǎn)業(yè)創(chuàng)新發(fā)展過(guò)程,采用多層視角模型(MLP)分析了轉(zhuǎn)型過(guò)程及其關(guān)鍵動(dòng)力過(guò)程,研究中國(guó)電力系統(tǒng)宏觀圖景、技術(shù)社會(huì)范式和細(xì)縫技術(shù),構(gòu)建制度-政策-技術(shù)協(xié)同演化模型,深入分析制度、政策、技術(shù)、市場(chǎng)之間的交互機(jī)理。其次,通過(guò)對(duì)學(xué)習(xí)曲線模型因素分析與選擇,構(gòu)建基于累積裝機(jī)容量和累積研發(fā)投入作用下的動(dòng)態(tài)雙因素學(xué)習(xí)曲線模型,定量評(píng)估能源政策與技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和應(yīng)用的關(guān)系,研究電力技術(shù)學(xué)習(xí)率和單位投資成本演變趨勢(shì)。再次,基于對(duì)主要電力技術(shù)發(fā)展的前瞻性分析,通過(guò)考慮財(cái)務(wù)參數(shù)、投資參數(shù)、運(yùn)維參數(shù)、稅收參數(shù)、容量參數(shù)等構(gòu)建多因素平準(zhǔn)化發(fā)電成本模型,對(duì)主要電力技術(shù)進(jìn)行全面的技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)性評(píng)估,在維持現(xiàn)有減排措施的情景中,可再生能源于2030年之后才具備與煤電相競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的價(jià)格優(yōu)勢(shì),而通過(guò)征收高水平的煤炭資源稅、碳稅和環(huán)境污染稅以及光伏電價(jià)補(bǔ)貼,2020年可再生能源電力已經(jīng)低于煤電價(jià)格,經(jīng)濟(jì)性明顯,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出不同發(fā)展階段的電力系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型路徑。通過(guò)設(shè)定政策轉(zhuǎn)移概率矩陣,建立基于馬爾科夫決策過(guò)程的動(dòng)態(tài)綜合資源戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃模型,以全社會(huì)總成本最小化為目標(biāo),以電力需求、電力負(fù)荷、裝機(jī)規(guī)模、靈活電源、污染物排放為約束條件,明確不同政策組合以及實(shí)施強(qiáng)度對(duì)電力規(guī)劃的影響以及不同電源納入規(guī)劃的時(shí)間及規(guī)模,采用粒子群文化算法求解不同政策集合下的電力規(guī)劃路徑,情景一復(fù)制路徑中,延續(xù)和發(fā)展現(xiàn)有體制結(jié)構(gòu)和運(yùn)營(yíng)模式,仍然保持以煤電為主導(dǎo)的電力技術(shù)發(fā)展路徑,煤電作為主流電源保證電力需求。情景二解構(gòu)和重構(gòu)路徑中,可再生能源電力技術(shù)從細(xì)縫技術(shù)突破技術(shù)封鎖轉(zhuǎn)型成為主流技術(shù)發(fā)展路徑,煤電作為調(diào)峰電源為可再生能源電力提供支撐,促使舊有社會(huì)一技術(shù)范式發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)型。情景三和情景四技術(shù)替代和范式再建路徑中可再生能源發(fā)電技術(shù)與當(dāng)前主流煤電技術(shù)相互競(jìng)爭(zhēng),煤電在2020年達(dá)到峰值,風(fēng)電與太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電分別在2020年、2030年實(shí)現(xiàn)大規(guī)模發(fā)展。最后,基于新世紀(jì)的能源安全觀從經(jīng)濟(jì)性、環(huán)保性、適應(yīng)性三個(gè)準(zhǔn)則提出電力規(guī)劃多屬性決策體系,采用粗糙集理論確定指標(biāo)權(quán)重,并利用區(qū)間型多屬性決策的目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型對(duì)各方案進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià),推薦情景二作為電力轉(zhuǎn)型的最優(yōu)路徑規(guī)劃。通過(guò)上述研究工作,本文的主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新點(diǎn)：第一,基于多層視角分析模型構(gòu)建了制度-政策-技術(shù)的協(xié)同演化模型,研究了制度、政策、技術(shù)、市場(chǎng)、價(jià)格等在不同發(fā)展階段的交互機(jī)理,構(gòu)建了電力系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型的理論基礎(chǔ)與分析框架。第二,在多層視角分析框架下研究了動(dòng)態(tài)雙因素學(xué)習(xí)曲線模型,分析累積研發(fā)與累積裝機(jī)容量共同作用下能源政策與技術(shù)創(chuàng)新之間的定量關(guān)系,探討技術(shù)學(xué)習(xí)規(guī)律對(duì)發(fā)電成本、電力規(guī)劃的動(dòng)態(tài)影響機(jī)理,形成了一套“宏觀圖景-轉(zhuǎn)型路徑-政策交互-技術(shù)尋優(yōu)-情景仿真”的電力轉(zhuǎn)型和政策優(yōu)化理論體系。第三,構(gòu)建了基于馬爾科夫決策過(guò)程的動(dòng)態(tài)綜合資源戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃模型,通過(guò)設(shè)計(jì)政策轉(zhuǎn)移概率矩陣,將政策變量引入電源規(guī)劃中,給出了中國(guó)2015-2050年不同政策實(shí)施路徑下的動(dòng)態(tài)電力規(guī)劃方案。第四,基于新世紀(jì)的能源安全觀,根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)性、環(huán)保性、適應(yīng)性三個(gè)準(zhǔn)則構(gòu)建電力規(guī)劃情景的多尺度決策體系,建立區(qū)間型多屬性決策的目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型,對(duì)電力規(guī)劃情景方案進(jìn)行綜合比較與評(píng)價(jià)。
[Abstract]:In the "13th Five-Year" and the next period of time, China's energy development is facing the arduous task of promoting the energy production and consumption revolution, ensuring the national energy strategic security and realizing the transformation from the energy power to the energy power. As an important field of energy transformation, the power system is the key to the low carbon development and the low carbon transformation of the power sector. The energy structure optimization of the power system is greatly lagged behind the developed countries. It is an inevitable way to cope with the increasingly severe conflict between the climate reduction, the environment and the energy security and so on. First, this paper is based on the theory of system transformation management and new production. In the process of industry innovation and development, the process of transformation and its key dynamic process are analyzed with multi view model (MLP). The macro picture of the Chinese power system, the paradigm of technical society and the slit technology are studied, the system policy technology co evolution model is constructed, and the interaction mechanism between system, policy, technology and market is deeply analyzed. Secondly, through the learning music Line model factor analysis and selection, build a dynamic dual factor learning curve model based on cumulative installed capacity and cumulative R & D input, quantitatively evaluate the relationship between energy policy and technology innovation and application, study the learning rate of power technology and the evolution trend of unit investment cost. Again, based on the prospect of the development of major power technology. By considering the financial parameters, the investment parameters, the operation and maintenance parameters, the tax parameters, the capacity parameters and so on, the multi factor leveling generation cost model is constructed. The technical and economic evaluation of the main power technology is carried out in a comprehensive way. In the situation of maintaining the existing emission reduction measures, the renewable energy can be derived from the competitive price of coal electricity after 2030. By collecting the high level of coal resource tax, carbon tax, environmental pollution tax and photovoltaic price subsidy, the renewable energy power has been lower than the coal electricity price in 2020, and the economy is obvious. On this basis, the power system transformation path in different stages of development is put forward. By setting the policy transfer probability matrix, the Markoff decision is set up. The dynamic integrated resource strategic planning model, with the goal of minimizing the total cost of the whole society, takes power demand, power load, loading scale, flexible power supply and pollutant emission as constraints, and defines the impact of different policy combinations and implementation intensity on power planning and the time and size of different power sources into the planning. The group culture algorithm solves the power planning path under different policy sets. In the scene replicating path, it continues and develops the existing system structure and operation mode. It still maintains the power technology development path dominated by coal and electricity. Coal electricity is the mainstream power supply to ensure the power demand. In scenario two deconstruction and reconstruction, renewable energy power technology The technology breakthrough technology blockade from slit technology to mainstream technology development path, coal electricity as a peak power supply to provide support for renewable energy and electricity, and promote the transformation of the old social one technology paradigm. Scenario three and scenario four technology replacement and paradigm rebuilding path of renewable energy source technology and current mainstream coal technology mutual Technology Competition, coal electricity reached its peak in 2020, wind power and solar power were developed in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Finally, based on the energy security concept of the new century, the multi attribute decision-making system of power planning was proposed from the three criteria of economy, environmental protection and adaptability. The weight of index was determined by rough set theory and interval multi attributes were used. The goal planning model of decision making is a comprehensive evaluation of each scheme, and scenario two is recommended as the optimal path planning for power transformation. Through the above research work, the main innovation points of this paper are as follows: first, the cooperative evolution model of system policy technology is constructed based on multi perspective analysis model, and the system, policy, technology, market, price, etc. are studied. The theoretical basis and analysis framework of power system transformation are constructed at different stages of development. Second, the dynamic dual factor learning curve model is studied under the multi-layer perspective analysis framework, and the quantitative relationship between energy policy and technical innovation under the joint action of cumulative R & D and cumulative installed capacity is analyzed, and the technical learning rules are discussed. The dynamic influence mechanism of law on power generation cost and power planning has formed a set of power transformation and policy optimization theory system of "macro picture - transformation path - policy interaction - Technology Optimization - scenario simulation". Third, a dynamic comprehensive resource strategic planning model based on Markoff's decision-making process is constructed, and the transfer probability of policy is designed. In matrix, the policy variables are introduced into the power planning, and the dynamic power planning scheme under the different policy implementation path of China for 2015-2050 years is given. Fourth, based on the energy security concept of the new century, the multi-scale decision-making system of electricity planning scenario is constructed according to the three criteria of economy, environmental protection and adaptability, and the order of interval multi attribute decision making is set up. The standard planning model is used to comprehensively compare and evaluate the scenario of power planning.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.61

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